Speed Figures Explained: How Beyer Speed Figures Work in Horse Racing

Speed figures are the most widely used analytical tool in horse racing handicapping — and for good reason. They translate raw finishing times into a single standardized number that allows bettors to compare horses across different tracks, distances, and surface conditions on a level playing field. What are Beyer Speed Figures? Beyer Speed Figures, created by Andrew Beyer and published in the Daily Racing Form since 1992, are the gold standard of US speed ratings. They work by taking a horse's raw finishing time and applying two adjustments: a par adjustment (based on how fast the track runs relative to other tracks) and a variant (a daily track condition adjustment based on how all horses ran that day versus the historical average). A Beyer of 100+ is elite — the class of Grade 1 competition. A figure in the 80s is solid allowance class. A horse in the 60s is at the lower claiming level. What matters most is not the absolute number but the consistency and trajectory of a horse's figures. How do you use speed figures to pick horses? The most reliable approach is to identify the horse in the field with the most consistent recent figures, then check whether it is being asked to repeat or exceed its best effort. A horse that ran 94–92–96 in its last three starts is a different proposition than one that ran 85–72–96 (the latter peaked once; the former is consistently fast). Also look for figure improvements after equipment changes, trainer changes, or surface switches — these are leading indicators that a horse is finding its best form. What is the difference between Beyer Speed Figures and other ratings? • Beyer Speed Figures (US): Published in DRF. Widely trusted. Available to the public. • EquiBase Speed Ratings: The official NTRA figures. Less variance-adjusted than Beyer. • Timeform Ratings (UK): The UK equivalent — numerical ratings with a narrative comment. • TimeformUS Ratings: Timeform's US product, used by StrideOdds alongside other proprietary metrics. How does StrideOdds use speed figures? StrideOdds does not rely solely on a single speed figure — it ingests multiple rating systems alongside real-time variables (track bias, pace projections, weather adjustments) and synthesizes them into a True Win Probability for each runner. A horse with a strong speed figure history but running on an unfavorable surface or facing a pace mismatch might still be downgraded in the model. Context matters as much as raw numbers. What speed figure indicates a winning horse? There is no single threshold — it depends entirely on the class of race. What matters is whether a horse's projected figure (based on recent form and current conditions) is higher than the rest of the field AND whether the market odds reflect that advantage. If a horse projects to run the best figure and is going off at 6/1, you have found exactly what StrideOdds is designed to surface: a mispriced edge.